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| #226344 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:49 PM 08.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING... THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY... BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND. THIS WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT HIGHER THAN...THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. THE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PALOMA MAY START TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.5N 78.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
