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| #226463 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:34 AM 09.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND VECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA. CAMAGUEY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OUR BEST GUESS AT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST...INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. PALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND THIS HAS NECESSITATED A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM...IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL LOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS...BY WHICH TIME THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE WE BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO AND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 21.2N 77.9W 50 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 76.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
