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| #226549 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:40 PM 09.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION ...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.0N 78.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 10/1200Z 22.2N 78.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/0000Z 22.7N 78.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/1200Z 23.0N 78.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 78.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
