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| #25315 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:04 PM 08.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.2N 84.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
