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| #25651 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 10.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1130Z. THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. SINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...SEVERAL CENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS. DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.0N 84.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 26.2N 85.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 28.8N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 31.1N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1200Z 33.8N 88.8W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
