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| #25714 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 10.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SHEARED SYSTEMS. SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE MUCH EARLIER. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 25.7N 85.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
