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| #25743 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 10.Jun.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. RECENT DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
