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| #25904 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 11.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ARLENE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE STORM CONTINUES WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 990 MB ACCORDING TO FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS ESTIMATE MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DUE TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE DECREASING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WATER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...COULD BRING THE WINDS UP TO HURRICANE STATUS. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. ARLENE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRRENTS IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL ARLENE SHOULD WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT JUST A COASTAL EVENT AND HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND AND LONG AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 29.6N 87.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 31.5N 88.0W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
