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| #25983 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 11.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ARLENE CROSSED THE COAST JUST WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AROUND 1900 UTC. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 991 MB...WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER. SINCE ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND FARTHER INLAND AT ABOUT 13 KT...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BEEN MORE SYMMETRIC TODAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS TODAY WERE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE HIGHEST OBSERVED IN ARLENE. THIS COINCIDED WITH A CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 30.7N 87.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 32.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
