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| #287339 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:14 AM 11.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
