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| #288341 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:28 AM 15.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. IN A FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES. RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0430Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
