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| #288427 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 15.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF... WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER. THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
