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| #288430 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 15.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA...SUGGESTING SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EXPOSED CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/14. OVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR FORECAST POINTS. THE ECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME... FORECASTING ANA TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 120 HR. AT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE GFDL AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST ANA TO PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE HWRF. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE CURRENT SHEAR WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A SIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR COULD AFFECT ANA EARLY AND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE LIGHTEST SHEAR NEAR THE 72 HR TIME. BASED ON THIS AND THE INCREASINGLY WARM WATER UNDER THE STORM... MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ANA LACKED VERTICAL DEPTH...ENDING AT ABOUT 500 MB. ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA IN 72 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST HAS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.3N 48.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.6N 50.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 15.2N 54.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 58.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 17.3N 62.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 22.0N 74.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
