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| #288537 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 15.Aug.2009) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
