Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #288543 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 15.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE. BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.3N 35.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
