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| #288658 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 16.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009 THE CENTER OF BILL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS MORNING...AND A 0419 UTC AMSR-E PASS INDICATED THAT IT HAS EITHER SLOWED DOWN OR HAS BEEN RE-FORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BILL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 100 KT SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IS STILL BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WELL BELOW THE HWRF MODEL. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR THAT MAY DEVELOP BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS INDICATED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 11.4N 37.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 11.8N 39.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 41.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.4N 44.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 47.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 53.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 58.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 64.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
