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| #288859 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 16.Aug.2009) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009 CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT. MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING. THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND INLAND FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 30.2N 86.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 31.3N 87.2W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/0000Z 33.0N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 88.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
