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| #28942 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 29.Jun.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005 BRET MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD A FAIRLY TIGHT CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS DEPICTED IN SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 03Z...AND SUFFICIENT FOR 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SINCE WARMED A BIT NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...BUT LACKING ANY EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INDEED...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE 03Z SSMI OVERPASS AND GOES SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT BRET IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/7. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT BASICALLY ALONG THE SAME HEADING. WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE...ALL OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY MOTION INLAND...WHICH SEEMS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 20.6N 96.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 21.1N 97.6W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.7N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
