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| #289565 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 19.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009 DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL INDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN WIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING. THE SFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W MAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.7N 58.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 22.1N 60.9W 120 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.1N 63.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 26.6N 65.6W 120 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 67.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 62.5W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/0000Z 53.0N 44.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
