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| #290883 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 24.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR AND SURFACE DATA FROM NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA INDICATE THAT BILL HAS QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASING ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A POLAR JET THAT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 60 KT...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON BUOY...SHIP...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS THAT RECORDED 50-56 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/37. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BILL WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON BILL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 48.6N 50.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0600Z 51.5N 29.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0600Z 62.5N 1.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS |
