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| #291997 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 28.Aug.2009) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009 DANNY REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS ONE RELIABLE-LOOKING 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DANNY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N71W AND THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DANNY HAS CONTINUED ITS ERRATIC MOTION THIS EVENING. JUST BEFORE SUNSET...THE EXPOSED CENTER APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE NORTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 020/10. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED. DANNY SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES...MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 48 HR. THE TRACK CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN ABOUT 12 HR...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IN 24-30 HR...AND NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR. DANNY IS ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WHILE DANNY IS STILL TROPICAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN SOME INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD ARRIVE IN DANNY AROUND 06Z TO BETTER DETERMINE THE POSITION AND INTENSITY. AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.4N 74.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 34.7N 73.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 39.5N 70.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 44.0N 64.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0000Z 47.3N 58.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 45.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/0000Z 53.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/0000Z 56.0N 14.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
