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| #292922 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 200 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA LESS ORGANIZED BUT CENTER APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AND SOME OF THE OTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER THIS MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.0N 58.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG |
