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| #293083 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 PM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE... ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
