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| #293114 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA GUADELOUPE... ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY... ANTIGUA... BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREFATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...16.1N 62.4W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
