Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #293117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 02.Sep.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ERIKA IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT ERIKA IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS...LIMITED TO A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A NEW CENTER COULD REFORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE. INFRARED PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SHEAR CAUSED BY WINDS BELOW THE CIRRUS CANOPY BECAUSE THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ERIKA IS ON ITS WAY TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR REFORM SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE REASON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT FORECAST ERIKA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LIMITED SINCE VARIOUS MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE WITH TIME AND THE TRACKERS NO LONGER FOLLOW THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 16.1N 62.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 63.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 67.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 68.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
