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| #293238 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:55 PM 03.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 200 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009 ...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED ERIKA FARTHER SOUTHWEST... AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA... ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ERIKA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ERIKA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...16.6N 64.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
