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| #293340 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 03.Sep.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009 ERIKA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR. IN ADDITION...RAOB FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BY TRACING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM DECOUPLED AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE ALL THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT COULD REDEVELOP. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...ERIKA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND COULD DEGENERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR. THE REMANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 16.8N 65.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 67.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
