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| #294460 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 09.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009 THE EYE OF FRED HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL REMAINS STRONG WITH AN OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE BEFITTING A MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 100 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS FRED ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ONLY GET MORE HOSTILE AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NEAR FRED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF/GFDL NOW SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FRED DISSIPATED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/11. FRED CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND DECELERATING IN A DAY OR SO...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER. AT ONE EXTREME...THE UKMET HAS FRED MISSING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO STALL SOUTH OF 17N AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER A NEW RIDGE. A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH SHOW FRED BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWARD BY THAT TROUGH AND APPROACHING 30N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE IDEA THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG-RANGE...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.8N 33.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.8N 34.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.0N 34.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.8N 34.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 18.3N 34.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 34.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 37.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
