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| #294523 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 09.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009 THE EYE OF FRED COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 2300 UTC...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS ERODING THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF ABOUT 20 KT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE HURRICANE. IN FACT...A 2308 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DECOUPLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT IS DOWN TO 5.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 90 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY ABOUT DAY 3...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE 30 KT AND THE SSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...SO QUICKER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY STRONG DURING THE HIGH SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS FRED AS A DEPRESSION AT DAY 5...IT IS ENTIRELY FEASIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY THEN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/9 MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE IN FACT BECOMING DECOUPLED. FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY 48 HOURS... FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. FRED SHOULD THEN BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...WHICH ALL MAINTAIN FRED AS A DEEP SYSTEM AND ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.3N 33.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.1N 34.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.8N 34.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 34.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 33.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 35.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
