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| #294676 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 10.Sep.2009) TCMAT2 HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2009 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 35.1W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 35.1W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 35.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.1N 35.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 35.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.3N 35.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N 44.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 35.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
