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| #294916 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 11.Sep.2009) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2009 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 34.6W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 34.6W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 34.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.4N 34.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.8N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.0N 50.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
