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| #29795 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 03.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THE EXPECTATION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER YUCATAN TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS IT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. NOTWITHSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 18.4N 87.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
