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| #29949 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 04.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 TODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST. AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD REPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. MOREOVER...THE MORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS OUTPUT. THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 22.8N 89.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 90.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 91.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 91.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.2N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 87.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING |
