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| #300032 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 06.Oct.2009) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSATE NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRI THIS EVENING AND THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED...SUGGESTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION. A 2151 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAT SEEM BELIEVABLE. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR HENRI TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. HENRI IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.4N 55.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.3N 57.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.5N 59.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.8N 61.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
