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| #30046 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 AM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 12.6N 64.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.2N 66.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 14.5N 69.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 72.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 18.0N 75.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.0N 84.0W 70 KT |
