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| #30097 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE NORTH...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT. CINDY REMAINS A RATHER ASYMMETRIC STORM WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 45 KT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BECAUSE OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND A REEVALUATION OF THE LATEST SLOSH MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 27.0N 90.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.7N 90.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 89.4W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 31.8N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/1200Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 40.0N 79.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 43.0N 74.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
