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| #30098 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND...BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED. THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE EVER TO HAVE FOUR NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE STORM WILL BE IN A LOW-SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SKILL IN INTENSITY CHANGE PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5. DENNIS IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 KT AS A RESULT OF A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE DECELERATION IS PREDICTED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER-RANGE TRACK PREDICTIONS...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MIGHT BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.3N 66.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 68.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 15.9N 71.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 76.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 81.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 83.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 75 KT |
