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| #30174 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A FEW SPOT SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES AROUND 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THESE WIND SPEEDS WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR-OBSERVED STRUCTURE...CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE CENTER CROSSES INTO THE MARSHY DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE PERIOD AND IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD TO AGREE BETTER WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES ARE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A LITTLE STRONGER STORM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.2N 90.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.7N 89.8W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 33.2N 86.7W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1800Z 34.7N 84.1W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1800Z 39.5N 71.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM |
