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| #30267 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND BRIEFLY WRAPPED UP AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR SO AND RECON REPORTS INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 992 MB. REPORTS FROM AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 99 MPH HAD OCCURRED AROUND 23Z AT 150 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER... SINCE THAT TIME THE RADAR SIGNATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND A RECENT RECON REPORT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 997 MB. ONE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE WEAKENING IS COLD UPWELLING OCCURRING OVER THE SHALLOW SHELF WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/11. CINDY BRIEFLY SLOWED DOWN AS IT NEARED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 28-29N LATITUDE...BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND AGREE ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 12-18 HOURS AND GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH CINDY WILL BE OVER "LAND" IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...MORER RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...BUT NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 29.0N 90.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 30.4N 89.3W 50 KT...NEAR MISS. COAST 24HR VT 07/0000Z 32.1N 87.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z 33.7N 85.2W 25 KT...INLAND BECOMING ET 48HR VT 08/0000Z 35.1N 82.1W 20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 38.8N 75.2W 25 KT...NEAR DELMARVA AND ET 96HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 70.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE |
