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| #30509 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 06.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 WHILE 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN ONLY 58 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 55 KT...BUT THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DENNIS COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SHORTLY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO...AND THEN SUSTAINING...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS 127 KT AND 931 MB BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 100 KT IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING DENNIS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. DENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE. FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.0N 72.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND |
