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| #30592 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 07.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105 KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA. THE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13 AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD... ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.0N 74.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 70 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND |
