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| #305966 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:58 AM 04.Nov.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES. ...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...11.6N 82.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM EST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
