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| #306028 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:58 PM 04.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH STRONG BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 48 KT...AND A FALLING MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDA. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...AND IS NOW 300/5. IDA IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STORM SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. ONLY THE UKMET MODEL NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM... SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND. IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM IDA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.0N 82.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 12.4N 83.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.0N 84.1W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/0600Z 13.7N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z 16.0N 85.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 86.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
