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| #306178 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:46 AM 05.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA CONTINUED TO IMPROVE UP UNTIL LANDFALL...WHICH OCCURRED NEAR TASBAPAUNI NICARAGUA...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS. AN 1117 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND AT THAT TIME. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.1N 83.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 13.6N 84.0W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 84.4W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 84.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 08/1200Z 18.4N 85.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
