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| #306253 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:40 PM 05.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 400 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. IDA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/3. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE ENVELOPE...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. LATER IN THE PERIOD WESTERLY WINDS BECOME QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD ARREST FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 13.3N 83.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 13.9N 83.9W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1800Z 14.9N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 84.3W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.1N 84.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 19.6N 85.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 87.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
