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| #30690 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 07.Jul.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM... NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB |
