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| #306915 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 PM 08.Nov.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009 ...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 125 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH... 160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST INFORMATION... LOCATION...21.7N 86.1W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS |
