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| #306946 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:49 PM 08.Nov.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009 ...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY... AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. ...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION... LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS |
