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| #307120 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:59 AM 09.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE DATA THAT SUPPORTED HURRICANE INTENSITY WERE OBTAINED AROUND 07Z...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SHORTLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z SHOWED WINDS OF 50-55 KT IN THE CORE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE INSTRUMENT DID NOT QUITE RESOLVE THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 60 KT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 18Z. WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS. THE LAST AIRCRAFT CENTER FIX SHOWED THE 700 MB- AND SURFACE CENTERS DECOUPLING...AND SINCE THEN THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/15. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF IDA IS LOSING SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM. STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS ARE MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IDA WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 26.5N 88.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 28.6N 88.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 88.2W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
