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| #30889 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 08.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION ALONG ITS PATH. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.7N 79.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.0N 80.7W 120 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.8N 82.8W 115 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 09/1800Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 27.7N 85.7W 115 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 88.0W 80 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/0600Z 36.6N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND |
